FROZEN PREDICTION

Virginia Tech vs Boston College

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 4 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Virginia Tech by 8.6

Why this pick?

Game controlStrongly leans away
Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans away
Close-game gritAway data unavailable
Defensive toughnessModerately leans away
Scoring punchModerately leans away
Transfer portal impactSmall effect
Previous-season performanceSmall effect
Recruiting strengthSmall effect
Returning productionSmall effect
Team talentSmall effect
Big-game winsModerately leans away
Recent formModerately leans away
Wins away from homeModerately leans away
Tough schedulesModerately leans away
Statement winsModerately leans away
WinningModerately leans away
Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-25T20:05:07.096711-05:00 · Snapshot 193 · Home win probability 0.2529 · 80% margin interval -25.3 to 8.0.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used
Configuration
Revision 3
Engine version
3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff
Sep 21, 2026 · 4:13 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor keyNormalized share
adj_margin0.108108
avoid_bad_losses0.040541
close_game_wins0.027027
defense_ppg0.067568
offense_ppg0.067568
preseason_portal0.040541
preseason_previous_performance0.054054
preseason_recruiting0.067568
preseason_returning0.054054
preseason_talent0.067568
quality_wins0.081081
recent_form0.054054
road_neutral_wins0.040541
sos0.081081
statement_wins0.040541
win_pct0.108108
Retained calibration/contextFrozen value
versionprovisional-all-slates-policy-v1
calibration_kinddocumented_policy
validation_statusnot_historically_validated
applied_home_field_points2.5
applied_fcs_baseline_z-1.5
residual_scale13.0
residual_scale_sourcedocumented_policy_not_validated
intercept0.0
difference_coefficient7.0
home_field_coefficient2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

FactorHome evidenceAway evidenceNormalized shareHome effective shareAway effective shareWeighted difference
Game controlMeasuredMeasured0.1081080.124171341152473230.1248012718600954-0.27389085438701255
Avoiding bad lossesMeasuredMeasured0.0405410.046564252932177460.04680047694753577-0.08055500834539725
Close-game gritMeasuredData unavailable0.0270270.0310428352881183080.027027027027027030.033108315358078316
Defensive toughnessMeasuredMeasured0.0675680.077607088220295770.07800079491255962-0.06742326556753454
Scoring punchMeasuredMeasured0.0675680.077607088220295770.07800079491255962-0.22339559156054864
Transfer portal impactMeasuredMeasured0.0405410.025337837837837840.02533783783783784-0.03194594139254539
Previous-season performanceMeasuredMeasured0.0540540.0337837837837837860.033783783783783786-0.012470730573809038
Recruiting strengthMeasuredMeasured0.0675680.042229729729729730.04222972972972973-0.022418133433384328
Returning productionMeasuredMeasured0.0540540.0337837837837837860.033783783783783786-0.027388482208124183
Team talentMeasuredMeasured0.0675680.042229729729729730.04222972972972973-0.019576312216292007
Big-game winsMeasuredMeasured0.0810810.093128505864354920.09360095389507155-0.2482214224631974
Recent formMeasuredMeasured0.0540540.0620856705762366170.0624006359300477-0.12242341617777358
Wins away from homeMeasuredMeasured0.0405410.046564252932177460.04680047694753577-0.13848558228815766
Tough schedulesMeasuredMeasured0.0810810.093128505864354920.09360095389507155-0.08970442808789442
Statement winsMeasuredMeasured0.0405410.046564252932177460.04680047694753577-0.11371047470184265
WinningMeasuredMeasured0.1081080.124171341152473230.1248012718600954-0.15431234473989558

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.