FROZEN PREDICTION

Hawai'i vs Wyoming

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 4 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Wyoming by 5.2

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritAway data unavailable

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionModerately leans away

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans home

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningSmall effect

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-25T20:05:07.096711-05:00 · Snapshot 193 · Home win probability 0.6554 · 80% margin interval -11.5 to 21.9.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Sep 21, 2026 · 4:13 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.12417134115247323	0.1248012718600954	0.07598948378646533
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04656425293217746	0.04680047694753577	-0.020023545530204433
Close-game grit	Measured	Data unavailable	0.027027	0.031042835288118308	0.02702702702702703	0.033108315358078316
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07760708822029577	0.07800079491255962	0.1383633210435219
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07760708822029577	0.07800079491255962	0.016488909570584576
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.02533783783783784	0.02533783783783784	-0.027401906625502293
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.033783783783783786	0.033783783783783786	-0.024683767685611646
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.04222972972972973	0.04222972972972973	0.02094089222762257
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.033783783783783786	0.033783783783783786	-0.05386834178375136
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.04222972972972973	0.04222972972972973	0.0025641278929990977
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.09312850586435492	0.09360095389507155	0.08254488347098612
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.062085670576236617	0.0624006359300477	-0.0214220890611075
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04656425293217746	0.04680047694753577	0.00012280029342640053
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.09312850586435492	0.09360095389507155	0.1619490409300031
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04656425293217746	0.04680047694753577	0.0003692721043480063
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.12417134115247323	0.1248012718600954	0.0006695538863455142

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.