FROZEN PREDICTION

Stonehill vs Ohio

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 4 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Ohio by 6.8

Why this pick?

Game controlSmall effect

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactModerately leans home

Previous-season performanceModerately leans home

Recruiting strengthModerately leans home

Returning productionModerately leans home

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans home

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningSmall effect

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-25T20:05:07.096711-05:00 · Snapshot 193 · Home win probability 0.7005 · 80% margin interval -9.8 to 23.5.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Sep 21, 2026 · 4:13 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.108108	0.12417134115247323	0.10810810810810811	-0.006905913749618076
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.040541	0.04656425293217746	0.04054054054054054	0.01620242664054957
Close-game grit	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.027027	0.031042835288118308	0.02702702702702703	0.04054054054054054
Defensive toughness	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.067568	0.07760708822029577	0.06756756756756757	-0.03058166733063465
Scoring punch	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.067568	0.07760708822029577	0.06756756756756757	0.05221342957332142
Transfer portal impact	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.040541	0.02533783783783784	0.04054054054054054	0.06929470532262108
Previous-season performance	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.054054	0.033783783783783786	0.05405405405405406	0.07015591278754249
Recruiting strength	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.067568	0.04222972972972973	0.06756756756756757	0.06802615616360311
Returning production	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.054054	0.033783783783783786	0.05405405405405406	0.10755306656351697
Team talent	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.067568	0.04222972972972973	0.06756756756756757	0.04231111330774446
Big-game wins	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.081081	0.09312850586435492	0.08108108108108109	0.03888477085521863
Recent form	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.054054	0.062085670576236617	0.05405405405405406	-0.0069421794892575855
Wins away from home	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.040541	0.04656425293217746	0.04054054054054054	0.03660453392325931
Tough schedules	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.081081	0.09312850586435492	0.08108108108108109	0.10393416504592914
Statement wins	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.040541	0.04656425293217746	0.04054054054054054	-0.011979754710550405
Winning	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.108108	0.12417134115247323	0.10810810810810811	0.030180337756102127

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.