FROZEN PREDICTION

Colorado State vs UTSA

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 4 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Colorado State by 0.5

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans away

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritAway data unavailable

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchModerately leans away

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans away

Statement winsModerately leans away

WinningSmall effect

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-25T21:32:59.591215-05:00 · Snapshot 193 · Home win probability 0.4854 · 80% margin interval -17.1 to 16.2.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Sep 21, 2026 · 4:13 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.12417134115247323	0.1248012718600954	-0.16157655541741128
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04656425293217746	0.04680047694753577	-0.01711409466204923
Close-game grit	Measured	Data unavailable	0.027027	0.031042835288118308	0.02702702702702703	0.033108315358078316
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07760708822029577	0.07800079491255962	-0.0174694587765672
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07760708822029577	0.07800079491255962	-0.14319178829487084
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.02533783783783784	0.02533783783783784	0.0004130940697311741
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.033783783783783786	0.033783783783783786	0.04826284057012538
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.04222972972972973	0.04222972972972973	-0.00959299387427099
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.033783783783783786	0.033783783783783786	0.035436282667383426
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.04222972972972973	0.04222972972972973	0.024720337546527565
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.09312850586435492	0.09360095389507155	0.00021189670567522273
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.062085670576236617	0.0624006359300477	-0.04694805303065647
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04656425293217746	0.04680047694753577	0.00012280029342640053
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.09312850586435492	0.09360095389507155	-0.11421534075387177
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04656425293217746	0.04680047694753577	-0.05695850836315424
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.12417134115247323	0.1248012718600954	-0.00010878399985586248

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.