FROZEN PREDICTION

Ball State vs Kent State

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 4 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Kent State by 3.1

Why this pick?

Game controlSmall effect
Avoiding bad lossesNeutral effect
Close-game gritNot used — data unavailable
Defensive toughnessSmall effect
Scoring punchSmall effect
Transfer portal impactSmall effect
Previous-season performanceSmall effect
Recruiting strengthSmall effect
Returning productionModerately leans home
Team talentSmall effect
Big-game winsNeutral effect
Recent formSmall effect
Wins away from homeNeutral effect
Tough schedulesModerately leans home
Statement winsNeutral effect
WinningNeutral effect
Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-25T21:32:59.591215-05:00 · Snapshot 193 · Home win probability 0.5953 · 80% margin interval -13.5 to 19.8.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used
Configuration
Revision 3
Engine version
3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff
Sep 21, 2026 · 4:13 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor keyNormalized share
adj_margin0.108108
avoid_bad_losses0.040541
close_game_wins0.027027
defense_ppg0.067568
offense_ppg0.067568
preseason_portal0.040541
preseason_previous_performance0.054054
preseason_recruiting0.067568
preseason_returning0.054054
preseason_talent0.067568
quality_wins0.081081
recent_form0.054054
road_neutral_wins0.040541
sos0.081081
statement_wins0.040541
win_pct0.108108
Retained calibration/contextFrozen value
versionprovisional-all-slates-policy-v1
calibration_kinddocumented_policy
validation_statusnot_historically_validated
applied_home_field_points2.5
applied_fcs_baseline_z-1.5
residual_scale13.0
residual_scale_sourcedocumented_policy_not_validated
intercept0.0
difference_coefficient7.0
home_field_coefficient2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

FactorHome evidenceAway evidenceNormalized shareHome effective shareAway effective shareWeighted difference
Game controlMeasuredMeasured0.1081080.12480127186009540.12480127186009540.031477354857910034
Avoiding bad lossesMeasuredMeasured0.0405410.046800476947535770.046800476947535770.0
Close-game gritData unavailableData unavailable0.0270270.027027027027027030.027027027027027030.0
Defensive toughnessMeasuredMeasured0.0675680.078000794912559620.078000794912559620.020124953423586833
Scoring punchMeasuredMeasured0.0675680.078000794912559620.07800079491255962-0.0486104093769471
Transfer portal impactMeasuredMeasured0.0405410.025337837837837840.02533783783783784-0.04163070236068775
Previous-season performanceMeasuredMeasured0.0540540.0337837837837837860.0337837837837837860.003892617781390287
Recruiting strengthMeasuredMeasured0.0675680.042229729729729730.042229729729729730.00514402972694307
Returning productionMeasuredMeasured0.0540540.0337837837837837860.0337837837837837860.07580508819689348
Team talentMeasuredMeasured0.0675680.042229729729729730.04222972972972973-0.011660474095450964
Big-game winsMeasuredMeasured0.0810810.093600953895071550.093600953895071550.0
Recent formMeasuredMeasured0.0540540.06240063593004770.0624006359300477-0.00025203686331563835
Wins away from homeMeasuredMeasured0.0405410.046800476947535770.046800476947535770.0
Tough schedulesMeasuredMeasured0.0810810.093600953895071550.093600953895071550.05663682833574739
Statement winsMeasuredMeasured0.0405410.046800476947535770.046800476947535770.0
WinningMeasuredMeasured0.1081080.12480127186009540.12480127186009540.0

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.