FROZEN PREDICTION

South Alabama vs Kentucky

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 4 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Kentucky by 8.5

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans away

Close-game gritHome data unavailable

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactModerately leans home

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthModerately leans home

Returning productionModerately leans away

Team talentModerately leans home

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeModerately leans home

Tough schedulesModerately leans home

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningSmall effect

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-25T21:32:59.591215-05:00 · Snapshot 193 · Home win probability 0.7435 · 80% margin interval -8.2 to 25.2.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Sep 21, 2026 · 4:13 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.1248012718600954	0.12417134115247323	0.1403789084578543
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04680047694753577	0.04656425293217746	-0.06900634334965006
Close-game grit	Data unavailable	Measured	0.027027	0.02702702702702703	0.031042835288118308	0.0
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07800079491255962	0.07760708822029577	0.10577533858867666
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07800079491255962	0.07760708822029577	0.02574620257508426
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.02533783783783784	0.02533783783783784	0.07027418616243768
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.033783783783783786	0.033783783783783786	0.043896023413207426
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.04222972972972973	0.04222972972972973	0.05037410659573911
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.033783783783783786	0.033783783783783786	-0.07697331729581822
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.04222972972972973	0.04222972972972973	0.06885298404927828
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.09360095389507155	0.09312850586435492	0.14731440719666195
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.0624006359300477	0.062085670576236617	-0.020126081339272867
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04680047694753577	0.04656425293217746	0.13109981891160136
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.09360095389507155	0.09312850586435492	0.2399703934734935
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04680047694753577	0.04656425293217746	-0.00008136503994108854
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.1248012718600954	0.12417134115247323	0.00010878399985586248

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.