FROZEN PREDICTION

Lindenwood vs Eastern Michigan

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 4 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Eastern Michigan by 3.5

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans away

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessModerately leans away

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthModerately leans home

Returning productionModerately leans home

Team talentModerately leans home

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningSmall effect

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-25T21:32:59.591215-05:00 · Snapshot 193 · Home win probability 0.6074 · 80% margin interval -13.1 to 20.2.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Sep 21, 2026 · 4:13 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.108108	0.12952575216726162	0.10810810810810811	-0.08256160362088133
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.040541	0.0485721570627231	0.04054054054054054	-0.006647030372880822
Close-game grit	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.027027	0.032381438041815404	0.02702702702702703	0.0060045565530584405
Defensive toughness	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.067568	0.0809535951045385	0.06756756756756757	-0.06539588501033665
Scoring punch	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.067568	0.0809535951045385	0.06756756756756757	-0.036025273956517376
Transfer portal impact	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.040541	0.02027027027027027	0.04054054054054054	0.04013176071724299
Previous-season performance	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.054054	0.02702702702702703	0.05405405405405406	0.044354214812824214
Recruiting strength	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.067568	0.033783783783783786	0.06756756756756757	0.0838769496078894
Returning production	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.054054	0.02702702702702703	0.05405405405405406	0.11222755777785415
Team talent	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.067568	0.033783783783783786	0.06756756756756757	0.08008466167597746
Big-game wins	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.081081	0.0971443141254462	0.08108108108108109	-0.007398163721620998
Recent form	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.054054	0.06476287608363081	0.05405405405405406	-0.03715721944017131
Wins away from home	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.040541	0.0485721570627231	0.04054054054054054	0.035560731429134906
Tough schedules	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.081081	0.0971443141254462	0.08108108108108109	0.012648031436680543
Statement wins	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.040541	0.0485721570627231	0.04054054054054054	-0.015118567597508487
Winning	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.108108	0.12952575216726162	0.10810810810810811	-0.01552114399947227

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.