FROZEN PREDICTION

Air Force vs Nevada

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 4 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Air Force by 5.4

Why this pick?

Game controlStrongly leans away

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessModerately leans away

Scoring punchModerately leans away

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthModerately leans home

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentAway data unavailable

Big-game winsModerately leans away

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesStrongly leans away

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningModerately leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-25T21:32:59.591215-05:00 · Snapshot 193 · Home win probability 0.3397 · 80% margin interval -22.0 to 11.3.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Sep 21, 2026 · 4:13 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.12417134115247323	0.11881693013768486	-0.2821750107763972
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04656425293217746	0.044556348801631826	-0.019265692011882406
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.031042835288118308	0.029704232534421216	-0.001427668629403786
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07760708822029577	0.07426058133605304	-0.07719718327433014
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07760708822029577	0.07426058133605304	-0.16498776341042554
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.02533783783783784	0.030405405405405407	-0.020836804133240537
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.033783783783783786	0.04054054054054054	-0.022272327803790497
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.04222972972972973	0.05067567567567568	0.059240706875959115
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.033783783783783786	0.04054054054054054	-0.03239731219154087
Team talent	Measured	Data unavailable	0.067568	0.04222972972972973	0.05067567567567568	-0.05314242849882424
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.09312850586435492	0.08911269760326365	-0.0837185354617665
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.062085670576236617	0.05940846506884243	-0.04367085827885388
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04656425293217746	0.044556348801631826	-0.001043802494124394
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.09312850586435492	0.08911269760326365	-0.27490253995932984
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04656425293217746	0.044556348801631826	-0.027843980985114022
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.12417134115247323	0.11881693013768486	-0.07909588344450022

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.