FROZEN PREDICTION

Oklahoma vs Georgia

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 4 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Georgia by 4.2

Why this pick?

Game controlSmall effect

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans home

Close-game gritHome data unavailable

Defensive toughnessModerately leans away

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans away

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans away

Statement winsModerately leans home

WinningModerately leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-26T12:47:01.402762-05:00 · Snapshot 193 · Home win probability 0.6261 · 80% margin interval -12.5 to 20.8.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Sep 21, 2026 · 4:13 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.1248012718600954	0.12417134115247323	-0.013473116333616336
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04680047694753577	0.04656425293217746	0.06675965926378406
Close-game grit	Data unavailable	Measured	0.027027	0.02702702702702703	0.031042835288118308	0.0
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07800079491255962	0.07760708822029577	-0.12312879156299351
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07800079491255962	0.07760708822029577	0.17512869823924387
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.02533783783783784	0.02533783783783784	0.02207987802713213
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.033783783783783786	0.033783783783783786	0.011141027357378631
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.04222972972972973	0.04222972972972973	0.01872788871738175
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.033783783783783786	0.033783783783783786	0.007139177826762232
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.04222972972972973	0.04222972972972973	0.011069904663760746
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.09360095389507155	0.09312850586435492	-0.07297641660838153
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.0624006359300477	0.062085670576236617	0.07480860145991026
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04680047694753577	0.04656425293217746	0.011427745922482517
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.09360095389507155	0.09312850586435492	-0.2169688364143436
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04680047694753577	0.04656425293217746	0.1139983817662496
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.1248012718600954	0.12417134115247323	0.15431234473989558

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.