FROZEN PREDICTION

Ole Miss vs Florida

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 4 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Florida by 3.0

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritNeutral effect

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactModerately leans away

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans away

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsModerately leans home

WinningNeutral effect

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-26T12:47:01.402762-05:00 · Snapshot 193 · Home win probability 0.5913 · 80% margin interval -13.7 to 19.7.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Sep 21, 2026 · 4:13 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.12417134115247323	0.12417134115247323	0.05353700148245501
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04656425293217746	0.04656425293217746	0.00573167013383865
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.031042835288118308	0.031042835288118308	0.0
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07760708822029577	0.07760708822029577	-0.02719402020443778
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07760708822029577	0.07760708822029577	0.09171840020472324
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.02533783783783784	0.02533783783783784	-0.06641634654455916
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.033783783783783786	0.033783783783783786	-0.03799458241024296
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.04222972972972973	0.04222972972972973	0.024048724616894016
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.033783783783783786	0.033783783783783786	0.024403007844205432
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.04222972972972973	0.04222972972972973	0.026956458919389026
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.09312850586435492	0.09312850586435492	-0.09258971241211642
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.062085670576236617	0.062085670576236617	0.05349647247885599
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04656425293217746	0.04656425293217746	-0.0009289933434122599
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.09312850586435492	0.09312850586435492	-0.039998818663048816
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04656425293217746	0.04656425293217746	0.056751966338688405
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.12417134115247323	0.12417134115247323	0.0

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.