FROZEN PREDICTION

UConn vs Miami (OH)

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 4 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

UConn by 1.2

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans away

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritAway data unavailable

Defensive toughnessModerately leans away

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formModerately leans away

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans home

Statement winsModerately leans away

WinningModerately leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-26T13:29:59.255436-05:00 · Snapshot 193 · Home win probability 0.4618 · 80% margin interval -17.9 to 15.4.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Sep 21, 2026 · 4:13 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.12417134115247323	0.1248012718600954	-0.06789240962817021
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04656425293217746	0.04680047694753577	-0.03135603839417409
Close-game grit	Measured	Data unavailable	0.027027	0.031042835288118308	0.02702702702702703	-0.033108315358078316
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07760708822029577	0.07800079491255962	-0.07912421507375966
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07760708822029577	0.07800079491255962	-0.04815567455675108
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.02533783783783784	0.02533783783783784	-0.035755586702288594
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.033783783783783786	0.033783783783783786	-0.006800657631039521
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.04222972972972973	0.04222972972972973	0.02134468358914835
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.033783783783783786	0.033783783783783786	0.014862470202986817
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.04222972972972973	0.04222972972972973	0.007563073416250718
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.09312850586435492	0.09360095389507155	-0.035471899857577004
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.062085670576236617	0.0624006359300477	-0.07203300549559352
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04656425293217746	0.04680047694753577	-0.03161744618701934
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.09312850586435492	0.09360095389507155	0.0728322614801797
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04656425293217746	0.04680047694753577	-0.05695850836315424
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.12417134115247323	0.1248012718600954	-0.1535340068536942

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.