FROZEN PREDICTION

Vanderbilt vs Auburn

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 4 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Auburn by 1.8

Why this pick?

Game controlSmall effect

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentModerately leans home

Big-game winsModerately leans away

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeModerately leans home

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsNeutral effect

WinningModerately leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-26T13:29:59.255436-05:00 · Snapshot 193 · Home win probability 0.5542 · 80% margin interval -14.9 to 18.4.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Sep 21, 2026 · 4:13 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.12417134115247323	0.12417134115247323	0.018329486987751123
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04656425293217746	0.04656425293217746	-0.025792515602273903
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.031042835288118308	0.031042835288118308	-0.033108315358078316
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07760708822029577	0.07760708822029577	0.0021628418385140485
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07760708822029577	0.07760708822029577	0.01498623876793407
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.02533783783783784	0.02533783783783784	0.009638861627061115
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.033783783783783786	0.033783783783783786	-0.0248436640274235
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.04222972972972973	0.04222972972972973	0.04777441614456749
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.033783783783783786	0.033783783783783786	-0.027258678974910328
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.04222972972972973	0.04222972972972973	0.06510298642962774
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.09312850586435492	0.09312850586435492	-0.12766506432407704
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.062085670576236617	0.062085670576236617	-0.001671764764964244
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04656425293217746	0.04656425293217746	0.13790876089327417
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.09312850586435492	0.09312850586435492	-0.005955088932326519
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04656425293217746	0.04656425293217746	0.0
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.12417134115247323	0.12417134115247323	-0.15342522285383836

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.