FROZEN PREDICTION

Kansas State vs Cincinnati

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 4 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Cincinnati by 1.9

Why this pick?

Game controlSmall effect

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritAway data unavailable

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionModerately leans away

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningSmall effect

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-26T13:29:59.255436-05:00 · Snapshot 193 · Home win probability 0.5578 · 80% margin interval -14.8 to 18.5.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Sep 21, 2026 · 4:13 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.12417134115247323	0.1248012718600954	-0.013379127727699128
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04656425293217746	0.04680047694753577	-0.02040154914091538
Close-game grit	Measured	Data unavailable	0.027027	0.031042835288118308	0.02702702702702703	0.033108315358078316
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07760708822029577	0.07800079491255962	-0.02395463796328478
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07760708822029577	0.07800079491255962	-0.032527194757496755
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.02533783783783784	0.02533783783783784	0.01845153511465985
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.033783783783783786	0.033783783783783786	-0.005548021121317503
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.04222972972972973	0.04222972972972973	-0.011849688517225223
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.033783783783783786	0.033783783783783786	-0.08190584015794483
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.04222972972972973	0.04222972972972973	-0.019475387133172713
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.09312850586435492	0.09360095389507155	0.05569582997350134
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.062085670576236617	0.0624006359300477	-0.025511945752686928
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04656425293217746	0.04680047694753577	0.00012280029342640053
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.09312850586435492	0.09360095389507155	0.04102606611644979
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04656425293217746	0.04680047694753577	-0.00020654202446583614
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.12417134115247323	0.1248012718600954	-0.0008871218860572461

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.