FROZEN PREDICTION

Rice vs Fresno State

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 4 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Fresno State by 1.0

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans away

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritHome data unavailable

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchModerately leans away

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans away

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesStrongly leans away

Statement winsModerately leans home

WinningModerately leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-26T13:29:59.255436-05:00 · Snapshot 193 · Home win probability 0.5291 · 80% margin interval -15.7 to 17.6.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Sep 21, 2026 · 4:13 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.1248012718600954	0.12417134115247323	-0.15365384428790635
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04680047694753577	0.04656425293217746	-0.0003280719464700127
Close-game grit	Data unavailable	Measured	0.027027	0.02702702702702703	0.031042835288118308	0.033108315358078316
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07800079491255962	0.07760708822029577	-0.034147120350767904
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07800079491255962	0.07760708822029577	-0.05717539671418917
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.02533783783783784	0.02533783783783784	0.011061741200579652
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.033783783783783786	0.033783783783783786	0.04164569908175962
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.04222972972972973	0.04222972972972973	0.010985847222455433
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.033783783783783786	0.033783783783783786	-0.0014278355653524473
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.04222972972972973	0.04222972972972973	0.017907894435976488
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.09360095389507155	0.09312850586435492	-0.08254488347098612
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.0624006359300477	0.062085670576236617	0.05010500077017224
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04680047694753577	0.04656425293217746	-0.00012280029342640053
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.09360095389507155	0.09312850586435492	-0.2672814470837512
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04680047694753577	0.04656425293217746	0.05695850836315424
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.1248012718600954	0.12417134115247323	0.1535340068536942

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.