FROZEN PREDICTION

Robert Morris vs Buffalo

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 4 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Buffalo by 5.7

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans away

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritModerately leans home

Defensive toughnessModerately leans away

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactModerately leans home

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthModerately leans home

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentModerately leans home

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans home

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningSmall effect

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-26T14:03:09.487160-05:00 · Snapshot 193 · Home win probability 0.6691 · 80% margin interval -11.0 to 22.3.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Sep 21, 2026 · 4:13 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.108108	0.12417134115247323	0.10810810810810811	-0.05222787453376876
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.040541	0.04656425293217746	0.04054054054054054	-0.003858418827885693
Close-game grit	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.027027	0.031042835288118308	0.02702702702702703	0.07364885589861886
Defensive toughness	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.067568	0.07760708822029577	0.06756756756756757	-0.05718106042697425
Scoring punch	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.067568	0.07760708822029577	0.06756756756756757	0.02842340237908686
Transfer portal impact	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.040541	0.02533783783783784	0.04054054054054054	0.06617355012909652
Previous-season performance	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.054054	0.033783783783783786	0.05405405405405406	0.04454033120035201
Recruiting strength	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.067568	0.04222972972972973	0.06756756756756757	0.07834869667757459
Returning production	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.054054	0.033783783783783786	0.05405405405405406	0.029606225018594827
Team talent	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.067568	0.04222972972972973	0.06756756756756757	0.055980154252711356
Big-game wins	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.081081	0.09312850586435492	0.08108108108108109	0.07985274480530785
Recent form	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.054054	0.062085670576236617	0.05405405405405406	-0.028675121433792847
Wins away from home	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.040541	0.04656425293217746	0.04054054054054054	0.03660453392325931
Tough schedules	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.081081	0.09312850586435492	0.08108108108108109	0.08586040122334998
Statement wins	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.040541	0.04656425293217746	0.04054054054054054	-0.011979754710550405
Winning	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.108108	0.12417134115247323	0.10810810810810811	0.030180337756102127

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.