FROZEN PREDICTION

Kennesaw State vs Arkansas State

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 4 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Arkansas State by 0.6

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans away

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritNot used — data unavailable

Defensive toughnessModerately leans away

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactModerately leans away

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthModerately leans home

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsNeutral effect

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeNeutral effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans away

Statement winsNeutral effect

WinningNeutral effect

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-26T14:38:44.285324-05:00 · Snapshot 193 · Home win probability 0.5191 · 80% margin interval -16.0 to 17.3.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Sep 21, 2026 · 4:13 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.1248012718600954	0.1248012718600954	-0.1060427458091367
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04680047694753577	0.04680047694753577	0.025923363005981546
Close-game grit	Data unavailable	Data unavailable	0.027027	0.02702702702702703	0.02702702702702703	0.0
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07800079491255962	0.07800079491255962	-0.10726582368355148
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07800079491255962	0.07800079491255962	-0.014890530362599443
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.02533783783783784	0.02533783783783784	-0.06612029579458514
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.033783783783783786	0.033783783783783786	-0.012425090282231516
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.04222972972972973	0.04222972972972973	0.06422508793893544
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.033783783783783786	0.033783783783783786	0.031022972738112227
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.04222972972972973	0.04222972972972973	0.041912767760453815
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.09360095389507155	0.09360095389507155	0.0
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.0624006359300477	0.0624006359300477	0.008401228777187776
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04680047694753577	0.04680047694753577	0.0
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.09360095389507155	0.09360095389507155	-0.1327195856581793
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04680047694753577	0.04680047694753577	0.0
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.1248012718600954	0.1248012718600954	0.0

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.