FROZEN PREDICTION

Delaware vs Virginia

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 4 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Virginia by 4.9

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritHome data unavailable

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceModerately leans home

Recruiting strengthModerately leans home

Returning productionModerately leans away

Team talentModerately leans home

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsModerately leans home

WinningSmall effect

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-26T15:02:26.355707-05:00 · Snapshot 193 · Home win probability 0.6476 · 80% margin interval -11.7 to 21.6.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Sep 21, 2026 · 4:13 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.1248012718600954	0.12417134115247323	0.06304991876464422
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04680047694753577	0.04656425293217746	-0.005710815670421637
Close-game grit	Data unavailable	Measured	0.027027	0.02702702702702703	0.031042835288118308	-0.033108315358078316
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07800079491255962	0.07760708822029577	0.07072982255202429
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07800079491255962	0.07760708822029577	0.06209138940439494
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.02533783783783784	0.02533783783783784	0.01677850413224852
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.033783783783783786	0.033783783783783786	0.07111810447340616
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.04222972972972973	0.04222972972972973	0.0657440693753268
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.033783783783783786	0.033783783783783786	-0.09787163784324945
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.04222972972972973	0.04222972972972973	0.06571531783236548
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.09360095389507155	0.09312850586435492	-0.037643058079697436
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.0624006359300477	0.062085670576236617	0.026988647736765143
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04680047694753577	0.04656425293217746	-0.00012280029342640053
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.09360095389507155	0.09312850586435492	0.021378887857775405
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04680047694753577	0.04656425293217746	0.05695850836315424
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.1248012718600954	0.12417134115247323	0.00010878399985586248

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.