FROZEN PREDICTION

Florida Atlantic vs UL Monroe

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 4 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Florida Atlantic by 1.7

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans away

Avoiding bad lossesNeutral effect

Close-game gritModerately leans away

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactModerately leans home

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans away

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeNeutral effect

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsNeutral effect

WinningModerately leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-26T15:02:26.355707-05:00 · Snapshot 193 · Home win probability 0.4484 · 80% margin interval -18.3 to 15.0.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Sep 21, 2026 · 4:13 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.12417134115247323	0.12417134115247323	-0.07867728414141836
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04656425293217746	0.04656425293217746	0.0
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.031042835288118308	0.031042835288118308	-0.06621663071615663
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07760708822029577	0.07760708822029577	-0.0486824162637077
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07760708822029577	0.07760708822029577	-0.01512424489533254
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.02533783783783784	0.02533783783783784	0.053335034336404796
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.033783783783783786	0.033783783783783786	-0.017201587391443313
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.04222972972972973	0.04222972972972973	-0.021878232624153206
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.033783783783783786	0.033783783783783786	-0.03855156026451604
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.04222972972972973	0.04222972972972973	-0.041593749880531466
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.09312850586435492	0.09312850586435492	-0.058591851033994544
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.062085670576236617	0.062085670576236617	-0.038450589594177756
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04656425293217746	0.04656425293217746	0.0
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.09312850586435492	0.09312850586435492	-0.017520734709712757
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04656425293217746	0.04656425293217746	0.0
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.12417134115247323	0.12417134115247323	-0.20904186613835468

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.