FROZEN PREDICTION

Troy vs Utah State

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 4 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Troy by 4.6

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans away

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans away

Close-game gritModerately leans away

Defensive toughnessModerately leans away

Scoring punchModerately leans away

Transfer portal impactModerately leans home

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans away

Recent formModerately leans away

Wins away from homeNeutral effect

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsModerately leans away

WinningModerately leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-26T15:24:44.916946-05:00 · Snapshot 193 · Home win probability 0.3614 · 80% margin interval -21.3 to 12.0.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Sep 21, 2026 · 4:13 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.12417134115247323	0.12417134115247323	-0.1882040714767914
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04656425293217746	0.04656425293217746	-0.06591420653914444
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.031042835288118308	0.031042835288118308	-0.06621663071615663
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07760708822029577	0.07760708822029577	-0.05219337547286791
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07760708822029577	0.07760708822029577	-0.11633880716135153
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.02533783783783784	0.02533783783783784	0.07066433056162823
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.033783783783783786	0.033783783783783786	0.015451583004885052
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.04222972972972973	0.04222972972972973	-0.012346034303190596
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.033783783783783786	0.033783783783783786	0.03881116673094376
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.04222972972972973	0.04222972972972973	-0.01838098076309808
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.09312850586435492	0.09312850586435492	-0.23149734901441046
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.062085670576236617	0.062085670576236617	-0.09386959155274265
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04656425293217746	0.04656425293217746	0.0
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.09312850586435492	0.09312850586435492	-0.030226496562834174
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04656425293217746	0.04656425293217746	-0.056751966338688405
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.12417134115247323	0.12417134115247323	-0.20904186613835468

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.