FROZEN PREDICTION

Massachusetts vs Sacramento State

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 4 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Massachusetts by 6.1

Why this pick?

Game controlStrongly leans away

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans away

Close-game gritNot used — data unavailable

Defensive toughnessModerately leans away

Scoring punchModerately leans away

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceModerately leans home

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionHome data unavailable

Team talentHome data unavailable

Big-game winsModerately leans away

Recent formModerately leans away

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsModerately leans away

WinningStrongly leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-26T15:24:44.916946-05:00 · Snapshot 193 · Home win probability 0.3196 · 80% margin interval -22.8 to 10.6.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Sep 21, 2026 · 4:13 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13036565977742448	0.1248012718600954	-0.31040908892940494
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04888712241653418	0.04680047694753577	-0.14979702589438054
Close-game grit	Data unavailable	Data unavailable	0.027027	0.02702702702702703	0.02702702702702703	0.0
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08147853736089031	0.07800079491255962	-0.15209019601208723
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08147853736089031	0.07800079491255962	-0.11090252808838198
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.02027027027027027	0.02533783783783784	-0.000999108917927153
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02702702702702703	0.033783783783783786	0.0629889285568859
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.033783783783783786	0.04222972972972973	0.014519643045728288
Returning production	Data unavailable	Measured	0.054054	0.02702702702702703	0.033783783783783786	0.05147485606248626
Team talent	Data unavailable	Measured	0.067568	0.033783783783783786	0.04222972972972973	0.053129812863434316
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.09777424483306836	0.09360095389507155	-0.08420474099877537
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.06518282988871224	0.0624006359300477	-0.14769649459966006
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04888712241653418	0.04680047694753577	-0.00108473592526653
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.09777424483306836	0.09360095389507155	0.03139611247783099
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04888712241653418	0.04680047694753577	-0.12969423444367606
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13036565977742448	0.1248012718600954	-0.3545912338265028

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.