FROZEN PREDICTION

Missouri State vs SMU

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 4 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

SMU by 10.0

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans home

Close-game gritModerately leans home

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactModerately leans away

Previous-season performanceModerately leans home

Recruiting strengthModerately leans home

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentModerately leans home

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans home

Statement winsNeutral effect

WinningModerately leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-26T16:08:35.858176-05:00 · Snapshot 193 · Home win probability 0.7786 · 80% margin interval -6.7 to 26.6.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Sep 21, 2026 · 4:13 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.12417134115247323	0.12417134115247323	0.1472839853352051
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04656425293217746	0.04656425293217746	0.07164587667298308
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.031042835288118308	0.031042835288118308	0.06621663071615663
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07760708822029577	0.07760708822029577	0.10866790695868461
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07760708822029577	0.07760708822029577	0.09012551934796859
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.02533783783783784	0.02533783783783784	-0.054757913909923336
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.033783783783783786	0.033783783783783786	0.06615839542941558
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.04222972972972973	0.04222972972972973	0.08422660028877922
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.033783783783783786	0.033783783783783786	0.03322962770274782
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.04222972972972973	0.04222972972972973	0.09723232894520675
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.09312850586435492	0.09312850586435492	0.04395244184346331
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.062085670576236617	0.062085670576236617	0.05851176677374875
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04656425293217746	0.04656425293217746	0.03909509278409124
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.09312850586435492	0.09312850586435492	0.06296761617748174
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04656425293217746	0.04656425293217746	0.0
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.12417134115247323	0.12417134115247323	0.15342522285383836

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.