FROZEN PREDICTION

Central Michigan vs Miami

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 4 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Miami by 10.3

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans home

Close-game gritHome data unavailable

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceModerately leans home

Recruiting strengthModerately leans home

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentModerately leans home

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeModerately leans home

Tough schedulesModerately leans away

Statement winsModerately leans home

WinningModerately leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-26T17:00:35.232430-05:00 · Snapshot 193 · Home win probability 0.7867 · 80% margin interval -6.3 to 27.0.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Sep 21, 2026 · 4:13 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.1248012718600954	0.12417134115247323	0.17848761422651171
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04680047694753577	0.04656425293217746	0.12646652381775425
Close-game grit	Data unavailable	Measured	0.027027	0.02702702702702703	0.031042835288118308	-0.033108315358078316
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07800079491255962	0.07760708822029577	0.007772585089908992
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07800079491255962	0.07760708822029577	0.19370230848123898
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.02533783783783784	0.02533783783783784	0.0066554044567802735
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.033783783783783786	0.033783783783783786	0.08953176083837852
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.04222972972972973	0.04222972972972973	0.11255888366702786
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.033783783783783786	0.033783783783783786	-0.022196352879569843
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.04222972972972973	0.04222972972972973	0.12407792796860692
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.09360095389507155	0.09312850586435492	0.06285345312178443
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.0624006359300477	0.062085670576236617	0.15839683970812277
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04680047694753577	0.04656425293217746	0.055972961387955336
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.09360095389507155	0.09312850586435492	-0.1533576939724959
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04680047694753577	0.04656425293217746	0.05695850836315424
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.1248012718600954	0.12417134115247323	0.15431234473989558

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.