FROZEN PREDICTION

Tulsa vs Arkansas

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 4 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Tulsa by 7.4

Why this pick?

Game controlStrongly leans away

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans away

Close-game gritHome data unavailable

Defensive toughnessModerately leans away

Scoring punchModerately leans away

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceModerately leans home

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentModerately leans home

Big-game winsModerately leans away

Recent formModerately leans away

Wins away from homeModerately leans away

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsModerately leans away

WinningStrongly leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-26T17:00:35.232430-05:00 · Snapshot 193 · Home win probability 0.2857 · 80% margin interval -24.0 to 9.3.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Sep 21, 2026 · 4:13 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.1248012718600954	0.12417134115247323	-0.2844635926037248
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04680047694753577	0.04656425293217746	-0.1120665623554997
Close-game grit	Data unavailable	Measured	0.027027	0.02702702702702703	0.031042835288118308	-0.033108315358078316
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07800079491255962	0.07760708822029577	-0.11354836702419502
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07800079491255962	0.07760708822029577	-0.11195268503706846
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.02533783783783784	0.02533783783783784	0.027447805966583534
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.033783783783783786	0.033783783783783786	0.05423912443360762
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.04222972972972973	0.04222972972972973	0.04930337894045723
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.033783783783783786	0.033783783783783786	-0.034787266501314126
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.04222972972972973	0.04222972972972973	0.056095422761232375
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.09360095389507155	0.09312850586435492	-0.24739125608544885
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.0624006359300477	0.062085670576236617	-0.16606151333861435
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04680047694753577	0.04656425293217746	-0.13317209661755944
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.09360095389507155	0.09312850586435492	0.005773267568371376
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04680047694753577	0.04656425293217746	-0.05683333137862949
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.1248012718600954	0.12417134115247323	-0.3075199995940222

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.