FROZEN PREDICTION

Mercyhurst vs Western Kentucky

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 4 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Western Kentucky by 4.9

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans away

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritHome data unavailable

Defensive toughnessModerately leans away

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactModerately leans home

Previous-season performanceModerately leans home

Recruiting strengthModerately leans home

Returning productionModerately leans home

Team talentModerately leans home

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans home

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningSmall effect

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-26T17:33:35.805309-05:00 · Snapshot 193 · Home win probability 0.6464 · 80% margin interval -11.8 to 21.5.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Sep 21, 2026 · 4:13 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.108108	0.1248012718600954	0.10810810810810811	-0.07363525042244934
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.040541	0.04680047694753577	0.04054054054054054	-0.004186490774355706
Close-game grit	Data unavailable	FCS baseline estimate	0.027027	0.02702702702702703	0.02702702702702703	0.04054054054054054
Defensive toughness	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.067568	0.07800079491255962	0.06756756756756757	-0.05931374287810741
Scoring punch	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.067568	0.07800079491255962	0.06756756756756757	-0.03014665708842633
Transfer portal impact	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.040541	0.02533783783783784	0.04054054054054054	0.06240980416043457
Previous-season performance	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.054054	0.033783783783783786	0.05405405405405406	0.06348038575922348
Recruiting strength	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.067568	0.04222972972972973	0.06756756756756757	0.07131819000543578
Returning production	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.054054	0.033783783783783786	0.05405405405405406	0.135071352004855
Team talent	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.067568	0.04222972972972973	0.06756756756756757	0.07112837844714512
Big-game wins	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.081081	0.09360095389507155	0.08108108108108109	-0.002692138665678273
Recent form	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.054054	0.0624006359300477	0.05405405405405406	-0.0328444514151372
Wins away from home	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.040541	0.04680047694753577	0.04054054054054054	0.03648173362983291
Tough schedules	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.081081	0.09360095389507155	0.08108108108108109	0.10133709100417412
Statement wins	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.040541	0.04680047694753577	0.04054054054054054	-0.012349026814898412
Winning	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.108108	0.1248012718600954	0.10810810810810811	-0.026388006898507732

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.