FROZEN PREDICTION

Oregon State vs UTEP

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 4 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Oregon State by 2.0

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans away

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans away

Close-game gritNot used — data unavailable

Defensive toughnessModerately leans away

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionModerately leans away

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsNeutral effect

Recent formModerately leans away

Wins away from homeNeutral effect

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsNeutral effect

WinningNeutral effect

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-26T17:33:35.805309-05:00 · Snapshot 193 · Home win probability 0.4386 · 80% margin interval -18.7 to 14.7.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Sep 21, 2026 · 4:13 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.1248012718600954	0.1248012718600954	-0.1644031876547987
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04680047694753577	0.04680047694753577	-0.06336822068128821
Close-game grit	Data unavailable	Data unavailable	0.027027	0.02702702702702703	0.02702702702702703	0.0
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07800079491255962	0.07800079491255962	-0.16039900362714896
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07800079491255962	0.07800079491255962	-0.04884541981503186
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.02533783783783784	0.02533783783783784	0.0402078227871692
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.033783783783783786	0.033783783783783786	-0.014222360993278844
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.04222972972972973	0.04222972972972973	-0.009883360696042358
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.033783783783783786	0.033783783783783786	-0.07197589281708464
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.04222972972972973	0.04222972972972973	-0.03662003562805966
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.09360095389507155	0.09360095389507155	0.0
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.0624006359300477	0.0624006359300477	-0.07729130475012758
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04680047694753577	0.04680047694753577	0.0
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.09360095389507155	0.09360095389507155	-0.037215431639216784
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04680047694753577	0.04680047694753577	0.0
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.1248012718600954	0.1248012718600954	0.0

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.