FROZEN PREDICTION

Missouri vs Mississippi State

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 4 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Mississippi State by 1.9

Why this pick?

Game controlSmall effect

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritAway data unavailable

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningSmall effect

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-26T18:36:21.512074-05:00 · Snapshot 193 · Home win probability 0.5577 · 80% margin interval -14.8 to 18.5.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Sep 21, 2026 · 4:13 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.12417134115247323	0.1248012718600954	-0.011030969298457344
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04656425293217746	0.04680047694753577	-0.008923670272826131
Close-game grit	Measured	Data unavailable	0.027027	0.031042835288118308	0.02702702702702703	0.033108315358078316
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07760708822029577	0.07800079491255962	0.001954060117616542
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07760708822029577	0.07800079491255962	-0.014874355746826107
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.02533783783783784	0.02533783783783784	-0.0422273937947439
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.033783783783783786	0.033783783783783786	-0.027254197398575247
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.04222972972972973	0.04222972972972973	-0.005476136779344061
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.033783783783783786	0.033783783783783786	-0.01051406189032255
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.04222972972972973	0.04222972972972973	-0.010814753437999862
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.09312850586435492	0.09360095389507155	0.0012764899325767853
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.062085670576236617	0.0624006359300477	0.008016640441804432
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04656425293217746	0.04680047694753577	0.040156707921676665
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.09312850586435492	0.09360095389507155	-0.03975893892027169
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04656425293217746	0.04680047694753577	-0.00020654202446583614
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.12417134115247323	0.1248012718600954	-0.0008871218860572461

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.