FROZEN PREDICTION

Minnesota vs Washington

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 4 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Washington by 3.1

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans away

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans home

Close-game gritAway data unavailable

Defensive toughnessModerately leans away

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans away

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningModerately leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-26T21:03:19.869753-05:00 · Snapshot 193 · Home win probability 0.5941 · 80% margin interval -13.6 to 19.8.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Sep 21, 2026 · 4:13 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.12417134115247323	0.1248012718600954	-0.059120206932328986
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04656425293217746	0.04680047694753577	0.07756023274917215
Close-game grit	Measured	Data unavailable	0.027027	0.031042835288118308	0.02702702702702703	0.033108315358078316
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07760708822029577	0.07800079491255962	-0.05542115461458749
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07760708822029577	0.07800079491255962	-0.03281168129564831
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.02533783783783784	0.02533783783783784	-0.049387691003417875
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.033783783783783786	0.033783783783783786	0.04587968915254736
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.04222972972972973	0.04222972972972973	0.02255515027740768
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.033783783783783786	0.033783783783783786	-0.013629339487455164
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.04222972972972973	0.04222972972972973	0.003002521222798444
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.09312850586435492	0.09360095389507155	0.04901010090017518
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.062085670576236617	0.0624006359300477	0.006497533505359698
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04656425293217746	0.04680047694753577	0.00012280029342640053
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.09312850586435492	0.09360095389507155	-0.0955073839761972
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04656425293217746	0.04680047694753577	-0.00020654202446583614
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.12417134115247323	0.1248012718600954	0.1533164388539825

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.