FROZEN PREDICTION

Oklahoma vs Michigan

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 2 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Michigan by 1.2

Why this pick?

Game controlSmall effect

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans away

Close-game gritAway data unavailable

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactNeutral effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formModerately leans away

Wins away from homeNeutral effect

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsModerately leans away

WinningSmall effect

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-12T04:08:31.019790-05:00 · Snapshot 10 · Home win probability 0.5373 · 80% margin interval -15.4 to 17.9.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Sep 11, 2026 · 7:57 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.11346251912289648	0.1136724960254372	0.00016093881759274287
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.042548444671086184	0.04262718600953895	-0.05823450378465188
Close-game grit	Measured	Data unavailable	0.027027	0.02836562978072412	0.02702702702702703	0.02888614346783598
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.0709140744518103	0.07104531001589826	0.000101480302353886
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.0709140744518103	0.07104531001589826	0.00009248566770815592
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.03547297297297297	0.03547297297297297	0.0
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.0472972972972973	0.0472972972972973	-0.025227090472353622
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.05912162162162163	0.05912162162162163	0.015979793598395367
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.0472972972972973	0.0472972972972973	0.010903471589964117
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.05912162162162163	0.05912162162162163	0.010875308487871438
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.08509688934217237	0.0852543720190779	0.00011859133465934313
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.05673125956144824	0.0568362480127186	-0.07968932291382662
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.042548444671086184	0.04262718600953895	0.0
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.08509688934217237	0.0852543720190779	0.000055031471782401864
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.042548444671086184	0.04262718600953895	-0.08692199150661738
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.11346251912289648	0.1136724960254372	-0.00016039554994556893

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.