FROZEN PREDICTION

Oregon vs Oklahoma State

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 2 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Oregon by 3.2

Why this pick?

Game controlSmall effect

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritHome data unavailable

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceModerately leans away

Recruiting strengthModerately leans away

Returning productionModerately leans away

Team talentModerately leans away

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeNeutral effect

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningModerately leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-12T04:08:31.019790-05:00 · Snapshot 10 · Home win probability 0.4015 · 80% margin interval -19.9 to 13.4.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Sep 11, 2026 · 7:57 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.1136724960254372	0.11346251912289648	-0.00016093881759275674
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04262718600953895	0.042548444671086184	-0.035985479062523425
Close-game grit	Data unavailable	Measured	0.027027	0.02702702702702703	0.02836562978072412	-0.02888614346783598
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07104531001589826	0.0709140744518103	-0.000101480302353886
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07104531001589826	0.0709140744518103	-0.00009248566770818367
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.03547297297297297	0.03547297297297297	0.01503983709209103
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.0472972972972973	0.0472972972972973	-0.13818520317965527
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.05912162162162163	0.05912162162162163	-0.11085770612393818
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.0472972972972973	0.0472972972972973	-0.13238631755481448
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.05912162162162163	0.05912162162162163	-0.09491013739989757
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.0852543720190779	0.08509688934217237	-0.00011859133465934313
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.0568362480127186	0.05673125956144824	-0.049251642087684934
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04262718600953895	0.042548444671086184	0.0
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.0852543720190779	0.08509688934217237	-0.000055031471782401864
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04262718600953895	0.042548444671086184	-0.0000850186388099694
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.1136724960254372	0.11346251912289648	-0.24438483255379997

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.