FROZEN PREDICTION

Eastern Michigan vs Michigan State

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 2 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Eastern Michigan by 1.8

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans away

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritHome data unavailable

Defensive toughnessModerately leans away

Scoring punchModerately leans away

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthModerately leans home

Returning productionModerately leans away

Team talentModerately leans home

Big-game winsModerately leans away

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeNeutral effect

Tough schedulesStrongly leans away

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningModerately leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-12T04:08:31.019790-05:00 · Snapshot 10 · Home win probability 0.4451 · 80% margin interval -18.5 to 14.9.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Sep 11, 2026 · 7:57 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.1136724960254372	0.11881693013768486	-0.16149219652772678
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04262718600953895	0.044556348801631826	0.02850452813186177
Close-game grit	Data unavailable	Measured	0.027027	0.02702702702702703	0.029704232534421216	0.02808864480387646
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07104531001589826	0.07426058133605304	-0.13898447100870387
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07104531001589826	0.07426058133605304	-0.0781663191600121
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.03547297297297297	0.030405405405405407	-0.03441085574601968
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.0472972972972973	0.04054054054054054	0.04841037159375572
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.05912162162162163	0.05067567567567568	0.05243023505009198
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.0472972972972973	0.04054054054054054	-0.08525633839350065
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.05912162162162163	0.05067567567567568	0.0584957345103965
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.0852543720190779	0.08911269760326365	-0.1819780783910129
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.0568362480127186	0.05940846506884243	0.018301944972334994
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04262718600953895	0.044556348801631826	0.0
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.0852543720190779	0.08911269760326365	-0.2936529967201913
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04262718600953895	0.044556348801631826	0.002082956650844306
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.1136724960254372	0.11881693013768486	0.12387656955132845

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.