FROZEN PREDICTION

California vs Syracuse

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 2 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Syracuse by 11.8

Why this pick?

Game controlStrongly leans home

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans home

Close-game gritNot used — data unavailable

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeNeutral effect

Tough schedulesHome data unavailable

Statement winsModerately leans home

WinningModerately leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-12T04:08:31.019790-05:00 · Snapshot 10 · Home win probability 0.8190 · 80% margin interval -4.8 to 28.5.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Sep 11, 2026 · 7:57 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.11441441441441443	0.1136724960254372	0.2634096657890754
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.042905405405405404	0.04262718600953895	0.09625379004811391
Close-game grit	Data unavailable	Data unavailable	0.027027	0.02702702702702703	0.02702702702702703	0.0
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07150900900900901	0.07104531001589826	0.1775306335484616
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07150900900900901	0.07104531001589826	0.20676645163620655
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.03547297297297297	0.03547297297297297	-0.04498135425961852
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.0472972972972973	0.0472972972972973	-0.018669471735723718
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.05912162162162163	0.05912162162162163	0.02547950713117237
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.0472972972972973	0.0472972972972973	-0.042341814674360705
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.05912162162162163	0.05912162162162163	0.0007153065266078673
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.08581081081081081	0.0852543720190779	0.17761406503140156
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.05720720720720721	0.0568362480127186	0.13170600668586233
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.042905405405405404	0.04262718600953895	0.0
Tough schedules	Data unavailable	Measured	0.081081	0.08108108108108109	0.0852543720190779	0.029791680331331838
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.042905405405405404	0.04262718600953895	0.08727448887666053
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.11441441441441443	0.1136724960254372	0.24511195904688654

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.