FROZEN PREDICTION

Tulsa vs Sam Houston

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 2 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Tulsa by 0.7

Why this pick?

Game controlSmall effect

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritAway data unavailable

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentModerately leans away

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeNeutral effect

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsModerately leans away

WinningModerately leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-12T04:08:31.019790-05:00 · Snapshot 10 · Home win probability 0.4785 · 80% margin interval -17.4 to 16.0.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Sep 11, 2026 · 7:57 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.11346251912289648	0.1136724960254372	0.00016093881759277062
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.042548444671086184	0.04262718600953895	-0.029093433557308028
Close-game grit	Measured	Data unavailable	0.027027	0.02836562978072412	0.02702702702702703	-0.02682284750584769
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.0709140744518103	0.07104531001589826	0.000101480302353886
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.0709140744518103	0.07104531001589826	0.00009248566770812816
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.03547297297297297	0.03547297297297297	0.04613801765486583
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.0472972972972973	0.0472972972972973	-0.02022756684007264
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.05912162162162163	0.05912162162162163	-0.03485726659880535
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.0472972972972973	0.0472972972972973	0.029802822345901953
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.05912162162162163	0.05912162162162163	-0.05185089223429733
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.08509688934217237	0.0852543720190779	0.00011859133465934313
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.05673125956144824	0.0568362480127186	-0.039809484234751946
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.042548444671086184	0.04262718600953895	0.0
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.08509688934217237	0.0852543720190779	0.00005503147178237411
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.042548444671086184	0.04262718600953895	-0.08692199150661738
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.11346251912289648	0.1136724960254372	-0.24425389741098724

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.