FROZEN PREDICTION

Bowling Green vs Nebraska

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 2 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Nebraska by 7.7

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans away

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans home

Close-game gritHome data unavailable

Defensive toughnessModerately leans away

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactModerately leans home

Previous-season performanceModerately leans home

Recruiting strengthModerately leans home

Returning productionModerately leans home

Team talentModerately leans home

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeNeutral effect

Tough schedulesAway data unavailable

Statement winsModerately leans home

WinningModerately leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-12T04:08:31.019790-05:00 · Snapshot 10 · Home win probability 0.7228 · 80% margin interval -9.0 to 24.3.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Sep 11, 2026 · 7:57 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.1136724960254372	0.1141460609545716	-0.050239933589995726
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04262718600953895	0.04280477285796435	0.06007769162811946
Close-game grit	Data unavailable	Measured	0.027027	0.02702702702702703	0.0285365152386429	0.026984438650276898
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07104531001589826	0.07134128809660725	-0.08988774329077823
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07104531001589826	0.07134128809660725	0.00020858469738450208
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.03547297297297297	0.03547297297297297	0.062138527955787275
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.0472972972972973	0.0472972972972973	0.06795982844457504
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.05912162162162163	0.05912162162162163	0.06894977958077043
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.0472972972972973	0.0472972972972973	0.07968620486998786
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.05912162162162163	0.05912162162162163	0.12985021194126004
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.0852543720190779	0.0856095457159287	0.00026746130795513023
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.0568362480127186	0.0570730304772858	0.08222855129946055
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04262718600953895	0.04280477285796435	0.0
Tough schedules	Measured	Data unavailable	0.081081	0.0852543720190779	0.08108108108108109	-0.029791680331331838
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04262718600953895	0.04280477285796435	0.08719875430955196
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.1136724960254372	0.1141460609545716	0.2452022717937961

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.