FROZEN PREDICTION

South Alabama vs Tulane

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 2 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

South Alabama by 5.1

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans away

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans away

Close-game gritNot used — data unavailable

Defensive toughnessModerately leans away

Scoring punchModerately leans away

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceModerately leans home

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionModerately leans away

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans away

Recent formModerately leans away

Wins away from homeNeutral effect

Tough schedulesAway data unavailable

Statement winsModerately leans away

WinningModerately leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-12T04:08:31.019790-05:00 · Snapshot 10 · Home win probability 0.3481 · 80% margin interval -21.7 to 11.6.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Sep 11, 2026 · 7:57 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.1136724960254372	0.11441441441441443	-0.2126343208818828
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04262718600953895	0.042905405405405404	-0.06701354747544754
Close-game grit	Data unavailable	Data unavailable	0.027027	0.02702702702702703	0.02702702702702703	0.0
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07104531001589826	0.07150900900900901	-0.12087369548168912
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07104531001589826	0.07150900900900901	-0.10182400135403206
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.03547297297297297	0.03547297297297297	0.02217259469611623
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.0472972972972973	0.0472972972972973	0.05524158874830683
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.05912162162162163	0.05912162162162163	0.03176522290546768
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.0472972972972973	0.0472972972972973	-0.10467332726365566
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.05912162162162163	0.05912162162162163	0.04680400729656407
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.0852543720190779	0.08581081081081081	-0.17761406503140156
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.0568362480127186	0.05720720720720721	-0.09169044968546203
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04262718600953895	0.042905405405405404	0.0
Tough schedules	Measured	Data unavailable	0.081081	0.0852543720190779	0.08108108108108109	-0.029791680331331866
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04262718600953895	0.042905405405405404	-0.08727448887666053
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.1136724960254372	0.11441441441441443	-0.24511195904688654

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.