FROZEN PREDICTION

Utah State vs Washington

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 2 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Washington by 5.8

Why this pick?

Game controlSmall effect

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritNot used — data unavailable

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactModerately leans away

Previous-season performanceModerately leans home

Recruiting strengthModerately leans home

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentModerately leans home

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeNeutral effect

Tough schedulesAway data unavailable

Statement winsModerately leans home

WinningModerately leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-12T12:04:32.951113-05:00 · Snapshot 10 · Home win probability 0.6733 · 80% margin interval -10.8 to 22.5.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Sep 11, 2026 · 7:57 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.1136724960254372	0.11441441441441443	-0.024765544725270032
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04262718600953895	0.042905405405405404	0.0447735653874578
Close-game grit	Data unavailable	Data unavailable	0.027027	0.02702702702702703	0.02702702702702703	0.0
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07104531001589826	0.07150900900900901	-0.04361423448154486
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07104531001589826	0.07150900900900901	-0.00739725672385471
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.03547297297297297	0.03547297297297297	-0.10972558780858797
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.0472972972972973	0.0472972972972973	0.0739055282955508
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.05912162162162163	0.05912162162162163	0.10276281449678057
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.0472972972972973	0.0472972972972973	-0.01962624886193543
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.05912162162162163	0.05912162162162163	0.09580250436920286
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.0852543720190779	0.08581081081081081	0.00041902271579635775
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.0568362480127186	0.05720720720720721	0.06129130399045714
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04262718600953895	0.042905405405405404	0.0
Tough schedules	Measured	Data unavailable	0.081081	0.0852543720190779	0.08108108108108109	-0.029791680331331866
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04262718600953895	0.042905405405405404	0.08730740933588924
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.1136724960254372	0.11441441441441443	0.24557459655149144

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.