FROZEN PREDICTION

UC Davis vs SMU

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 2 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

SMU by 19.3

Why this pick?

Game controlStrongly leans home

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans home

Close-game gritModerately leans home

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceModerately leans home

Recruiting strengthModerately leans home

Returning productionModerately leans home

Team talentModerately leans home

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeModerately leans home

Tough schedulesStrongly leans home

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningModerately leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-12T13:14:21.599966-05:00 · Snapshot 10 · Home win probability 0.9311 · 80% margin interval 2.6 to 35.9.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Sep 11, 2026 · 7:57 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.108108	0.11346251912289648	0.10810810810810811	0.3369798144985262
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.040541	0.042548444671086184	0.04054054054054054	0.05217270392766133
Close-game grit	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.027027	0.02836562978072412	0.02702702702702703	0.06942668400837652
Defensive toughness	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.067568	0.0709140744518103	0.06756756756756757	0.17886978888778327
Scoring punch	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.067568	0.0709140744518103	0.06756756756756757	0.20126285132841226
Transfer portal impact	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.040541	0.03547297297297297	0.04054054054054054	0.045827968726601546
Previous-season performance	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.054054	0.0472972972972973	0.05405405405405406	0.13338162480496663
Recruiting strength	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.067568	0.05912162162162163	0.06756756756756757	0.120703715847676
Returning production	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.054054	0.0472972972972973	0.05405405405405406	0.1079652872725248
Team talent	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.067568	0.05912162162162163	0.06756756756756757	0.14969325285204343
Big-game wins	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.081081	0.08509688934217237	0.08108108108108109	0.23409185009809128
Recent form	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.054054	0.05673125956144824	0.05405405405405406	0.06646977722281915
Wins away from home	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.040541	0.042548444671086184	0.04054054054054054	0.060810810810810814
Tough schedules	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.081081	0.08509688934217237	0.08108108108108109	0.3769122896481387
Statement wins	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.040541	0.042548444671086184	0.04054054054054054	0.014870382053851244
Winning	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.108108	0.11346251912289648	0.10810810810810811	0.24883304325774944

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.