FROZEN PREDICTION

North Texas vs Tulsa

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 5 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Tulsa by 5.9

Why this pick?

Game controlSmall effect

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritAway data unavailable

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchModerately leans away

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceModerately leans away

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formModerately leans away

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningModerately leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-01T12:30:37.505090-05:00 · Snapshot 281 · Home win probability 0.6747 · 80% margin interval -10.8 to 22.5.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Sep 27, 2026 · 9:22 AM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.12952575216726162	0.13036565977742448	0.026796437528839968
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.0485721570627231	0.04888712241653418	0.023031630234900832
Close-game grit	Measured	Data unavailable	0.027027	0.032381438041815404	0.02702702702702703	0.035913326049772966
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.0809535951045385	0.08147853736089031	0.20392434060693934
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.0809535951045385	0.08147853736089031	-0.12026168383876756
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.02027027027027027	0.02027027027027027	-0.02261919528483673
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02702702702702703	0.02702702702702703	-0.05608927991629432
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.033783783783783786	0.033783783783783786	0.017683339445875242
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02702702702702703	0.02702702702702703	0.04029092358958174
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.033783783783783786	0.033783783783783786	0.006466774700867581
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.0971443141254462	0.09777424483306836	0.2087796633532666
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.06476287608363081	0.06518282988871224	-0.07724205581232098
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.0485721570627231	0.04888712241653418	0.046571450711202125
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.0971443141254462	0.09777424483306836	0.02033882347589326
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.0485721570627231	0.04888712241653418	-0.00015147000670026264
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.12952575216726162	0.13036565977742448	0.1306723962591755

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.