FROZEN PREDICTION

Penn State vs Northwestern

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 5 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Northwestern by 4.4

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactModerately leans home

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionModerately leans home

Team talentModerately leans away

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeModerately leans away

Tough schedulesModerately leans home

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningSmall effect

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-01T12:30:37.505090-05:00 · Snapshot 281 · Home win probability 0.6331 · 80% margin interval -12.2 to 21.1.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Sep 27, 2026 · 9:22 AM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.12417134115247323	0.12952575216726162	0.058745251638274334
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04656425293217746	0.0485721570627231	-0.007858308682077285
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.031042835288118308	0.032381438041815404	0.0014660484231440313
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07760708822029577	0.0809535951045385	-0.02604857437617318
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07760708822029577	0.0809535951045385	0.06795694331071846
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.02533783783783784	0.02027027027027027	0.05805198988191265
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.033783783783783786	0.02702702702702703	-0.01937897365835603
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.04222972972972973	0.033783783783783786	-0.030406519261156915
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.033783783783783786	0.02702702702702703	0.09605281775961719
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.04222972972972973	0.033783783783783786	-0.057339137294443565
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.09312850586435492	0.0971443141254462	0.05830107074407647
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.062085670576236617	0.06476287608363081	-0.010968431943362444
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04656425293217746	0.0485721570627231	-0.07659319740551751
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.09312850586435492	0.0971443141254462	0.22799049051124928
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04656425293217746	0.0485721570627231	-0.020633309338174886
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.12417134115247323	0.12952575216726162	-0.04481296415706057

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.