FROZEN PREDICTION

Louisville vs NC State

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 5 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

NC State by 3.1

Why this pick?

Game controlSmall effect

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans away

Close-game gritNeutral effect

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeNeutral effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans home

Statement winsNeutral effect

WinningNeutral effect

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-01T12:30:37.505090-05:00 · Snapshot 281 · Home win probability 0.5931 · 80% margin interval -13.6 to 19.7.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Sep 27, 2026 · 9:22 AM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.12952575216726162	0.12952575216726162	-0.019018784757052085
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.0485721570627231	0.0485721570627231	-0.0743929273087776
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.032381438041815404	0.032381438041815404	0.0
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.0809535951045385	0.0809535951045385	0.07379357503370428
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.0809535951045385	0.0809535951045385	0.020045957740548515
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.02027027027027027	0.02027027027027027	-0.0009547062944898678
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02702702702702703	0.02702702702702703	-0.0078991510612617
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.033783783783783786	0.033783783783783786	0.010965703024195042
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02702702702702703	0.02702702702702703	0.026064489229342826
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.033783783783783786	0.033783783783783786	0.0017005876505597935
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.0971443141254462	0.0971443141254462	-0.039094122837778134
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.06476287608363081	0.06476287608363081	-0.0017856530514244115
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.0485721570627231	0.0485721570627231	0.0
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.0971443141254462	0.0971443141254462	0.09102560874291327
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.0485721570627231	0.0485721570627231	0.0
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.12952575216726162	0.12952575216726162	0.0

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.