FROZEN PREDICTION

Memphis vs Charlotte

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 5 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Memphis by 5.8

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans away

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritModerately leans away

Defensive toughnessModerately leans away

Scoring punchModerately leans away

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceModerately leans away

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans away

Recent formModerately leans away

Wins away from homeNeutral effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans home

Statement winsModerately leans away

WinningStrongly leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-01T12:30:37.505090-05:00 · Snapshot 281 · Home win probability 0.3268 · 80% margin interval -22.5 to 10.8.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Sep 27, 2026 · 9:22 AM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.12952575216726162	0.12952575216726162	-0.20954304507000976
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.0485721570627231	0.0485721570627231	-0.04528265140534288
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.032381438041815404	0.032381438041815404	-0.07137773552392376
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.0809535951045385	0.0809535951045385	-0.05195241454629472
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.0809535951045385	0.0809535951045385	-0.13397806338111148
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.02027027027027027	0.02027027027027027	-0.01913084536266223
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02702702702702703	0.02702702702702703	-0.05104367706273157
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.033783783783783786	0.033783783783783786	-0.04705975080448272
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02702702702702703	0.02702702702702703	0.03665643305959369
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.033783783783783786	0.033783783783783786	-0.03591166770091626
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.0971443141254462	0.0971443141254462	-0.12134642772608346
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.06476287608363081	0.06476287608363081	-0.13678102373911008
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.0485721570627231	0.0485721570627231	0.0
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.0971443141254462	0.0971443141254462	0.06598688914676075
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.0485721570627231	0.0485721570627231	-0.1089947512046621
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.12952575216726162	0.12952575216726162	-0.26064831196364135

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.