FROZEN PREDICTION

Eastern Michigan vs Massachusetts

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 5 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Massachusetts by 13.8

Why this pick?

Game controlStrongly leans home

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans home

Close-game gritHome data unavailable

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionModerately leans away

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeModerately leans home

Tough schedulesModerately leans away

Statement winsModerately leans home

WinningStrongly leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-01T12:30:37.505090-05:00 · Snapshot 281 · Home win probability 0.8553 · 80% margin interval -2.9 to 30.4.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Sep 27, 2026 · 9:22 AM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13036565977742448	0.13488016318204998	0.3524024216934306
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04888712241653418	0.050580061193268744	0.15884775625822045
Close-game grit	Data unavailable	Measured	0.027027	0.02702702702702703	0.033720040795512496	0.036930457897294836
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08147853736089031	0.08430010198878124	0.20802547109843977
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08147853736089031	0.08430010198878124	0.13600511758029668
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.02027027027027027	0.015202702702702704	0.032724733473282565
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02702702702702703	0.02027027027027027	-0.014908555164406544
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.033783783783783786	0.02533783783783784	-0.04340188636953368
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02702702702702703	0.02027027027027027	-0.06453974237256879
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.033783783783783786	0.02533783783783784	-0.026553833034217034
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.09777424483306836	0.10116012238653749	0.16442051897662743
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.06518282988871224	0.06744008159102499	0.2033530146012606
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04888712241653418	0.050580061193268744	0.0701386643885046
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.09777424483306836	0.10116012238653749	-0.05232214829963022
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04888712241653418	0.050580061193268744	0.13036448993629954
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13036565977742448	0.13488016318204998	0.3184949018990472

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.