FROZEN PREDICTION

Samford vs UAB

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 5 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

UAB by 5.6

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans away

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans home

Close-game gritModerately leans home

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactModerately leans home

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthModerately leans home

Returning productionModerately leans home

Team talentModerately leans home

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans away

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningModerately leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-01T12:30:37.505090-05:00 · Snapshot 281 · Home win probability 0.6666 · 80% margin interval -11.1 to 22.3.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Sep 27, 2026 · 9:22 AM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.108108	0.12952575216726162	0.10810810810810811	-0.0840221883148434
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.040541	0.0485721570627231	0.04054054054054054	0.05237187776811221
Close-game grit	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.027027	0.032381438041815404	0.02702702702702703	0.052661288082338914
Defensive toughness	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.067568	0.0809535951045385	0.06756756756756757	0.005713669492512147
Scoring punch	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.067568	0.0809535951045385	0.06756756756756757	-0.04795595544943411
Transfer portal impact	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.040541	0.02027027027027027	0.04054054054054054	0.09625931096503063
Previous-season performance	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.054054	0.02702702702702703	0.05405405405405406	0.04336954522077535
Recruiting strength	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.067568	0.033783783783783786	0.06756756756756757	0.05913551864180708
Returning production	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.054054	0.02702702702702703	0.05405405405405406	0.12001575177068567
Team talent	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.067568	0.033783783783783786	0.06756756756756757	0.07201822440766935
Big-game wins	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.081081	0.0971443141254462	0.08108108108108109	-0.02742788564398635
Recent form	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.054054	0.06476287608363081	0.05405405405405406	0.057221909620780526
Wins away from home	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.040541	0.0485721570627231	0.04054054054054054	0.027240762444497475
Tough schedules	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.081081	0.0971443141254462	0.08108108108108109	-0.06772231966471029
Statement wins	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.040541	0.0485721570627231	0.04054054054054054	-0.024825101503431868
Winning	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.108108	0.12952575216726162	0.10810810810810811	0.1084585365329385

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.