FROZEN PREDICTION

Wyoming vs North Dakota State

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 5 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

North Dakota State by 14.6

Why this pick?

Game controlStrongly leans home

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans home

Close-game gritNeutral effect

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceModerately leans home

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionHome data unavailable

Team talentHome data unavailable

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeModerately leans home

Tough schedulesModerately leans home

Statement winsModerately leans home

WinningStrongly leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-01T12:30:37.505090-05:00 · Snapshot 281 · Home win probability 0.8687 · 80% margin interval -2.1 to 31.2.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Sep 27, 2026 · 9:22 AM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.12952575216726162	0.12952575216726162	0.3864420830435451
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.0485721570627231	0.0485721570627231	0.09056530281068575
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.032381438041815404	0.032381438041815404	0.0
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.0809535951045385	0.0809535951045385	0.1315516413286067
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.0809535951045385	0.0809535951045385	0.14962590701765052
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.02027027027027027	0.02027027027027027	-0.021591050044616887
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02702702702702703	0.02702702702702703	0.07783919947915378
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.033783783783783786	0.033783783783783786	-0.03766459352477862
Returning production	Data unavailable	Measured	0.054054	0.02702702702702703	0.02702702702702703	0.019840233309630636
Team talent	Data unavailable	Measured	0.067568	0.033783783783783786	0.033783783783783786	0.042352462666068555
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.0971443141254462	0.0971443141254462	0.19532405883135073
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.06476287608363081	0.06476287608363081	0.09106830562264512
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.0485721570627231	0.0485721570627231	0.11506795431970995
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.0971443141254462	0.0971443141254462	0.11363964551348628
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.0485721570627231	0.0485721570627231	0.1089947512046621
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.12952575216726162	0.12952575216726162	0.26064831196364135

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.