FROZEN PREDICTION

Indiana vs Rutgers

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 5 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Indiana by 7.4

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans away

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans away

Close-game gritModerately leans away

Defensive toughnessModerately leans away

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsStrongly leans away

Recent formModerately leans away

Wins away from homeNeutral effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans home

Statement winsModerately leans away

WinningStrongly leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-01T12:30:37.505090-05:00 · Snapshot 281 · Home win probability 0.2842 · 80% margin interval -24.1 to 9.2.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Sep 27, 2026 · 9:22 AM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.12952575216726162	0.12952575216726162	-0.22863704344362965
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.0485721570627231	0.0485721570627231	-0.07115845220839595
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.032381438041815404	0.032381438041815404	-0.07137773552392376
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.0809535951045385	0.0809535951045385	-0.20012907850340533
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.0809535951045385	0.0809535951045385	-0.0248925533608255
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.02027027027027027	0.02027027027027027	-0.017515188556602477
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02702702702702703	0.02702702702702703	-0.045916675492761946
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.033783783783783786	0.033783783783783786	0.00755316695132725
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02702702702702703	0.02702702702702703	0.028868239066762173
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.033783783783783786	0.033783783783783786	0.011071481618184534
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.0971443141254462	0.0971443141254462	-0.26358861116097054
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.06476287608363081	0.06476287608363081	-0.09517530764092128
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.0485721570627231	0.0485721570627231	0.0
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.0971443141254462	0.0971443141254462	0.054442047564046456
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.0485721570627231	0.0485721570627231	-0.1089947512046621
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.12952575216726162	0.12952575216726162	-0.39097246794546203

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.