FROZEN PREDICTION

Pittsburgh vs Virginia Tech

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 5 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Virginia Tech by 0.1

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans away

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritNeutral effect

Defensive toughnessModerately leans away

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans away

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeModerately leans home

Tough schedulesModerately leans away

Statement winsModerately leans away

WinningNeutral effect

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-02T04:32:03.179251-05:00 · Snapshot 284 · Home win probability 0.5027 · 80% margin interval -16.6 to 16.7.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 1, 2026 · 9:50 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.12952575216726162	0.12952575216726162	-0.08965193124001009
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.0485721570627231	0.0485721570627231	0.006468950200763268
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.032381438041815404	0.032381438041815404	0.0
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.0809535951045385	0.0809535951045385	-0.08890330362372142
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.0809535951045385	0.0809535951045385	0.007489369453003075
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.02027027027027027	0.02027027027027027	0.03212953875687036
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02702702702702703	0.02702702702702703	-0.028322959108774227
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.033783783783783786	0.033783783783783786	0.005924209081189975
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02702702702702703	0.02702702702702703	-0.0031152775971326116
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.033783783783783786	0.033783783783783786	0.007816647687587903
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.0971443141254462	0.0971443141254462	-0.06176523552712604
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.06476287608363081	0.06476287608363081	-0.026784795771366214
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.0485721570627231	0.0485721570627231	0.13706782778922066
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.0971443141254462	0.0971443141254462	-0.1882413158119333
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.0485721570627231	0.0485721570627231	-0.05449737560233105
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.12952575216726162	0.12952575216726162	0.0

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.