FROZEN PREDICTION

Alabama vs Mississippi State

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 5 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Alabama by 1.0

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans away

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritAway data unavailable

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchModerately leans away

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formModerately leans away

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans away

Statement winsModerately leans away

WinningSmall effect

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-02T04:32:03.179251-05:00 · Snapshot 284 · Home win probability 0.4693 · 80% margin interval -17.7 to 15.7.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 1, 2026 · 9:50 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.12952575216726162	0.13036565977742448	-0.1003799922249057
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.0485721570627231	0.04888712241653418	-0.02051161064922942
Close-game grit	Measured	Data unavailable	0.027027	0.032381438041815404	0.02702702702702703	0.035913326049772966
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.0809535951045385	0.08147853736089031	-0.012533280738099412
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.0809535951045385	0.08147853736089031	-0.07830639138009587
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.02027027027027027	0.02027027027027027	0.0018726931161147375
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02702702702702703	0.02702702702702703	-0.028343317020980155
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.033783783783783786	0.033783783783783786	-0.039000728553777085
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02702702702702703	0.02702702702702703	0.007788193992831522
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.033783783783783786	0.033783783783783786	-0.037142701402263556
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.0971443141254462	0.09777424483306836	-0.0012633246582346713
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.06476287608363081	0.06518282988871224	-0.06136802199296535
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.0485721570627231	0.04888712241653418	0.00795072925080427
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.0971443141254462	0.09777424483306836	-0.1103871829430167
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.0485721570627231	0.04888712241653418	-0.06322984738578587
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.12952575216726162	0.13036565977742448	-0.0013419294157859252

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.