FROZEN PREDICTION

UCF vs Houston

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 5 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Houston by 1.7

Why this pick?

Game controlSmall effect

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessModerately leans away

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionModerately leans home

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans away

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeModerately leans home

Tough schedulesModerately leans away

Statement winsNeutral effect

WinningNeutral effect

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-02T04:32:03.179251-05:00 · Snapshot 284 · Home win probability 0.5519 · 80% margin interval -15.0 to 18.4.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 1, 2026 · 9:50 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.12952575216726162	0.12952575216726162	-0.03851066799134281
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.0485721570627231	0.0485721570627231	0.00970342530114491
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.032381438041815404	0.032381438041815404	-0.03568886776196189
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.0809535951045385	0.0809535951045385	-0.10864121010572653
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.0809535951045385	0.0809535951045385	0.018434069755642962
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.02027027027027027	0.02027027027027027	0.018176139068172382
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02702702702702703	0.02702702702702703	0.01348810544966323
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.033783783783783786	0.033783783783783786	0.008581065500397828
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02702702702702703	0.02702702702702703	0.05856721882609305
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.033783783783783786	0.033783783783783786	-0.013435651690253566
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.0971443141254462	0.0971443141254462	-0.0823402511084258
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.06476287608363081	0.06476287608363081	0.05356959154273241
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.0485721570627231	0.0485721570627231	0.0568960201723295
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.0971443141254462	0.0971443141254462	-0.07359853918970938
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.0485721570627231	0.0485721570627231	0.0
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.12952575216726162	0.12952575216726162	0.0

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.