FROZEN PREDICTION

Boston College vs SMU

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 5 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

SMU by 5.9

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessModerately leans away

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeModerately leans home

Tough schedulesModerately leans away

Statement winsModerately leans home

WinningModerately leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-02T04:32:03.179251-05:00 · Snapshot 284 · Home win probability 0.6739 · 80% margin interval -10.8 to 22.5.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 1, 2026 · 9:50 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.12952575216726162	0.12952575216726162	0.07119455956241041
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.0485721570627231	0.0485721570627231	0.02911027590343471
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.032381438041815404	0.032381438041815404	0.02379257850797459
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.0809535951045385	0.0809535951045385	-0.11797857533314048
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.0809535951045385	0.0809535951045385	0.10932953838200003
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.02027027027027027	0.02027027027027027	-0.003488349922174494
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02702702702702703	0.02702702702702703	0.04565291400312935
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.033783783783783786	0.033783783783783786	0.009277945872649076
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02702702702702703	0.02702702702702703	0.04288698825385891
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.033783783783783786	0.033783783783783786	0.029407046093878918
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.0971443141254462	0.0971443141254462	0.04185536504730428
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.06476287608363081	0.06476287608363081	0.051783938491308
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.0485721570627231	0.0485721570627231	0.09931966165824457
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.0971443141254462	0.0971443141254462	-0.13691979699582527
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.0485721570627231	0.0485721570627231	0.05449737560233105
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.12952575216726162	0.12952575216726162	0.13032415598182068

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.