FROZEN PREDICTION

Navy vs Air Force

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 5 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Air Force by 9.3

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthNeutral effect

Returning productionModerately leans home

Team talentNot used — data unavailable

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans home

Statement winsNeutral effect

WinningModerately leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-02T04:32:03.179251-05:00 · Snapshot 284 · Home win probability 0.7633 · 80% margin interval -7.3 to 26.0.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 1, 2026 · 9:50 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.12417134115247323	0.12417134115247323	0.20146061162418127
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04656425293217746	0.04656425293217746	0.006201532968054549
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.031042835288118308	0.031042835288118308	0.0342135405513296
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07760708822029577	0.07760708822029577	0.09666258414776238
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07760708822029577	0.07760708822029577	0.09732196065427956
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.02533783783783784	0.02533783783783784	0.007848787324892616
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.033783783783783786	0.033783783783783786	-0.028502278156527196
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.04222972972972973	0.04222972972972973	0.0
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.033783783783783786	0.033783783783783786	0.05659420968124239
Team talent	Data unavailable	Data unavailable	0.067568	0.04222972972972973	0.04222972972972973	0.0
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.09312850586435492	0.09312850586435492	0.043019581002533946
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.062085670576236617	0.062085670576236617	0.027389386962005973
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04656425293217746	0.04656425293217746	0.039520433604892144
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.09312850586435492	0.09312850586435492	0.2257792671374797
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04656425293217746	0.04656425293217746	0.0
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.12417134115247323	0.12417134115247323	0.1665823201132458

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.