FROZEN PREDICTION

Vanderbilt vs Georgia

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 5 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Georgia by 8.7

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans home

Close-game gritHome data unavailable

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthModerately leans home

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentModerately leans home

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeModerately leans home

Tough schedulesModerately leans away

Statement winsModerately leans home

WinningModerately leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-02T04:32:03.179251-05:00 · Snapshot 284 · Home win probability 0.7492 · 80% margin interval -7.9 to 25.4.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 1, 2026 · 9:50 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13036565977742448	0.12952575216726162	0.18243953123749146
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04888712241653418	0.0485721570627231	0.06255978695419066
Close-game grit	Data unavailable	Measured	0.027027	0.02702702702702703	0.032381438041815404	-0.000224458287811081
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08147853736089031	0.0809535951045385	0.018931585700393064
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08147853736089031	0.0809535951045385	0.144548363399341
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.02027027027027027	0.02027027027027027	-0.018102700122442385
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02702702702702703	0.02702702702702703	0.002499824661252502
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.033783783783783786	0.033783783783783786	0.05596032869638723
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02702702702702703	0.02702702702702703	0.03457958132817197
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.033783783783783786	0.033783783783783786	0.05860442032757753
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.09777424483306836	0.0971443141254462	0.0006520718106696188
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.06518282988871224	0.06476287608363081	0.12084532135460443
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04888712241653418	0.0485721570627231	0.09072789871043407
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.09777424483306836	0.0971443141254462	-0.11244255383995663
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04888712241653418	0.0485721570627231	0.11772722298811691
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13036565977742448	0.12952575216726162	0.1316660853976066

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.